Written by Brook Schaaf

On Wall Street, it’s clearly a bear case. According to Yahoo Finance, only five years have seen three-day drawdowns worse than the 10.73% triggered by the Trump tariffs. Klarna and Stubhub have delayed their IPOs. Ad spend growth, already forecast in the low single digits, may not even meet those expectations. Opponents cite possible consumer good price increases, economic growth slowdown, job losses, recession, and even a threat to global stability.

Proponents point to lower rates on 10-year treasuries, lower oil prices, and declining inflation. Domestic manufacturing might increase, boosting national security. A market correction is overdue, and the current economic order should end because it is unfair to many, at least in the United States, where it has not brought about promised outcomes.

Whatever plays out, there is a sense that things are, for better or worse, changing and that this change shall not be undone. I will spare you my own opinions and prognostications, save for those related to affiliate marketing.

One clear risk is supply shortages, which means sellers will hold off on discounts and advertisements (someone familiar with auto sales told me this morning that dealerships are salivating at the short-term prospect of inventory constraint). Panic is another risk; one can only hope that advertisers learned their lesson during COVID that it is not productive to cut commissions, fire agencies, and shutter programs. You are paying for performance, people!

On that note, things look better for affiliate. As AdExchanger put it, “As a rule of thumb, marketers tend to pull back on brand building and focus more on performance channels in times of economic uncertainty.” Ewan McIntyre of Gartner added, “What we do know is that consumer confidence is low and buying cycles have extended for many higher-price items.” Also, “Generally, channels with weak alignment to demonstrable business goals will be at risk if brands face significant budget cuts.”

Right now, on the commerce continent of the internet world, two purchase paths dominate — call it the 2 Dot Order: in the US, about half of product searches start on Amazon vs. about a third on Google. The former process tires you out just a little before sending a signal to buy “Amazon’s Choice,” probably something from China. The latter, which could be considered to be in a traffic embargo against small publishers, walks you through its own properties until you exit to the highest bidder. Neither is an optimal experience, and both might soon be disrupted. In Amazon’s case, the double whammy of the end of de minimis and 104% tariffs on Chinese goods might send some customers perusing elsewhere. In the case of Google, judicial remedy and a poor search experience might do the same.

If prices go up, as it appears at least some will in the short term, some buyer segments will aggressively seek discounts. Affiliate is probably the best channel for discovery and distribution of said discounts. If buying cycles lengthen, as it appears they will at least for some products, some buyer segments will do more research, perhaps also searching by country of origin. Affiliate is probably the best channel for discovery and reviews.

In this time of volatility and anxiety, marketers must focus on what works. Affiliate marketing, which delivers measurable results in alignment with advertiser needs, meets consumers where they are now and will meet them there in the future.

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