Written by Brook Schaaf

The suspension of duty-free de minimis treatment for all countries came into effect on August 29th, pursuant to a presidential executive order issued on July 30th. This followed related executive orders from earlier in the year, including a May suspension for items originating in China. In case you are not familiar with the de minimis provision, it allows—or, rather, allowed—for the duty-free importation of products valued at less than $800 (increased from $200 in 2016).

This “loophole,” as it came to be known, may have been the single greatest contributor to the explosive growth of Shein and Temu over the past decade. Citing U.S. Customs data, Marketplace Pulse estimated these duty-free imports to have grown “from $9.2 billion in 2016 to $54.5 billion in 2023, with Chinese sellers accounting for nearly 60% of all shipments.” Per CBP.gov, in fiscal year 2024, there were 1.36 billion packages, up from 637 million in 2020. (This package deluge has caused issues with the smuggling of drugs, firearms, and helicopter engines.) 

So what effect have we seen since the change, and how does it impact affiliate marketing? Will the sky fall, or are we perhaps already living among the ruins?

Less than a month ago, the usually discerning AdExchanger wrote that “the demise of de minimis will have a maximus effect on both retailers and their customers” and that “holiday budgets are gonna take a hit.” 

I suppose this depends on your definition of “hit.” There are certainly clear examples of price increases, such as “woman’s cotton cozy slipper” jumping from $30 to $45.37 and “Japanese chef’s knife” increasing from $240 to $298.49. The CEO of Kuru Footwear said, “The end of de minimis will cost us millions of dollars in lost profit.” That’s disconcerting, but it doesn’t sound existential to the business. The aggregate impact is still hard to determine, in part because the economy is also processing the effects of the tariffs, to which the end of de minimis is clearly linked.

Anecdotally, I have not heard much about it—not at CJU, not from our work colleagues, not even in my personal life. Honestly, but for news coverage, I don’t know that I would have noticed. And given how often we have to replace household items that are broken by little hands, even though little ears connected to the little hands have been told “no” any number of times… anyway, I personally suspect a lot of this is mindless consumption. No one will notice it’s stopped except for the sellers and the landfills. 

One report indicated that out of $3.25 billion in 2024 calendar year imports, $1.01 billion was dutiable. Borrowing the $54.5 billion number from 2023 and assuming that it would all count as dutiable, that would be a little over 5% of the total. 

So much ado about nothing? Not if it’s your business that’s impacted. But based on this data, I don’t expect many of those businesses to be affiliate marketing companies. Still, as we tally the months since de minimis, it’s hard not to notice how little has actually changed. In the end, the “maximus effect” may prove more de minimis than anyone expected.

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